![]() ![]() YOLO: You only live once.ĬOVID, in particular, has given us an incredibly renewed appreciation of the value of life. That is going to be pretty disconcerting. We’re going to have to update our beliefs, and we’re going to have to get used to a level of volatility, both in terms of climate change, in terms of infectious diseases, and in terms of the economy. ![]() We can’t just believe one thing that is always going to be true. The world we live in is much more unpredictable, it has much fatter tails, much higher upsides, and lower downsides. Life was much less predictable in those days.įor most of the 20th century, we lived in a world where someone like Warren Buffett could come along with one big idea and say, “I’m going to make a big bet on America being great, and that one big bet will always be true, and it’s going to make me the richest man in the world.” That is not a world we live in anymore. We are now back to what you could think of as “normal” in the 19th century, the 18th century, or even the 17th century. At this point, all of the big post-war structures that were keeping volatility down and making things more predictable had pretty much evaporated. Then 2016 happened, with the election of Trump and the Brexit vote in the UK, there was a rise of unpredictable politicians and movements around the world. It turns out that with hindsight, there was this very unusual period of calm for about 70 years, from roughly 1945 to 2015. You might think that everything is weirder and more unexpected than it used to be, and you are right. Listen to the audio version-read by Felix himself-in the Next Big Idea App. He has won major business journalism prizes, including the American Statistical Association’s Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award.īelow, Felix shares five key insights from his new book, The Phoenix Economy: Work, Life, and Money in the New Not Normal. He has worked for noted economist Nouriel Roubini and his work has been published in Reuters and Condé Nast. He earned an MA in philosophy and art history from the University of Glasgow. Felix Salmon is the chief financial correspondent at Axios and the host of the weekly Slate Money podcast.
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